Realignment theories

Realignment theories
- Great US presidents were almost all preceded by bad US presidents
- Bottom line: skowroek - political time is what is important.

Hetherington disagress that Skownereck puts too much pressure on the context

Great presidents ruled at a time when they could be great

All presidents who follow the greats don't win reelection - Next presidents all won reelection

Types of presidential politics
1. Politics of reconstruction
- Big idea guys
- Use bankruptcy of the previous regime to implement their big ideas
o President at a great time
- Redefine politics
2. Politics of Articulation
- Same party of the great president
- FDR is great president - Truman articulator + got into trouble when integrate military
- Usually climb up the party ladder
- Build on the consensus and don't try to do anything they shouldn't
3. Politics of Preemption
- Usually the party opposite the dominant party in the regime order
- Ie Clinton, Eisenhower (Eisenhower's victory was personal, not party. He was WWII hero)
- Dominant ideas of the regime in power still in effect
o IE Reagan's idea of small gov't backfire Clinton's push for universal healthcare
- President at this time can't bring forth too many new ideas
- Usually good presidents, just need to realize limitations of power
- Can't redefine politics
4. Politics of Disjunction
- This is where regime order fall apart
- When conditions start to get bad, start work of president that follows them but can't really do that
o IE Hoover started expanding government at end of presidency, but doesn't have support of party
- Then follows reconstruction

Problem with realignment theory
- Not predictive
o Is Bush politics of articulation or disjunction?
- Can't tell if Obama will act on politics of reconstruction
o President's don't campaign on big changes


VO Key - Started analyzing presdiental politics around late 1920s. Asks what causes political realignment?
- Realizes changes in party usually start with the conversion of one key group to another party
- Mobilization / socialization of new voters
o Disproportional amount of new voters come into electorate on one side
-
Burnham
- Says there is a triggering event that turns people against party in power
o Something public can't miss